V rabote rassmatrivayutsya osobennosti analiza scenariev investicionnyh proektov v periody, harakterizuyuschiesya vysokim urovnem neopredelennosti vneshney sredy. Avtory obraschayut vnimanie na to, chto v dannyh usloviyah, s odnoy storony, vozrastaet rol' metodov ekspertnyh ocenok kak instrumentov ekonomicheskogo prognozirovaniya razvitiya predpriyatiya, no, s drugoy storony, v dolgosrochnom periode dostovernost' prognozirovaniya znachitel'no snizhaetsya. Eto privodit k neobhodimosti bolee shirokogo vetvleniya dereva scenariev i uvelichivaet ob'emy predvaritel'nyh analiticheskih procedur. The paper discusses the features of a scenario analysis of investment projects in periods characterized by a high level of uncertainty of the external environment. The authors draw attention to the fact that the circumstances on the one hand, the role of the Delphi method as a tool for economic forecasting the development of the enterprise, but on the other hand in the long term reliability of forecasting is greatly reduced. This leads to the need for wider tree branch scenarios and increases the volume of pre-analytical procedures. Keywords: investment project; the financial model; uncertainty; risk; scenario analysis; tree scenarios
investment project, the financial model, uncertainty, risk, scenario analysis, tree scenarios
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