Moscow, Moscow, Russian Federation
The relevance of this research topic lies in the need to anticipate the impact and localize the consequences of the expected global financial crisis of 2023-2024. The purpose of the presented studies is a theoretical and methodological analysis of the problems of the development of the world economy in the 2020s, taking into account the business cycles of economic activity of K. Zhuglyar. The scientific novelty of the presented research consists in determining from the theoretical and methodological positions the factors of influence on the expected global economic crisis of 2023-2024 associated with the business (banking) cycles of economic activity of K. Zhuglyar. The practical significance of the presented studies lies in the possibility of using the results of the theoretical and methodological analysis carried out to anticipate the impact and localize the consequences of the expected global financial crisis of 2023-2024 by taking into account the factors corresponding to the business (banking) cycles of K. Zhuglyar's economic activity.
influence, business cycles K. Zhuglyar, economic activity, development, international economy, immediate prospects.
1. 8 krupneyshih padeniy amerikanskogo rynka v istorii. https://journal.tinkoff.ru/short/worst-drawdowns/ (data obrascheniya 01.01.2023)
2. Juglar C. Des Crises Commercials Et De Leur Retour Periodique En France. Paris, 1862.
3. Kitchin, Joseph. Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors // Review of Economics and Statistics: journal. — 1923. — Vol. 5, no. 1. — P. 10—16.
4. Kuznets S. Secular Movements in Production and Prices. Their Nature and their Bearing upon Cyclical Fluctuations. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1930.
5. Tim Jackson. Inside Intel. The history of the corporation that made the technological revolution of the 20th century. – M.: Alpina Publisher, 2013. – 328 p.
6. Aktual'nye problemy vzaimodeystviya teorii i prikladnoy ekonomiki v epohu permanentnogo krizisa. Kumehov K.K., Danilochkina N.G., Levin Yu.A., Tebekin A.V., Fiapshev A.B., Holbekov R.O., Pavlov P., Stepanov A.A., Rybin M.V., Mitropol'skaya-Radionova N.V., Fedorov L.V., Horeva A.V., Shmarova L.V., Ignatova I.O., Hamikoev V.A. Moskva, 2022.
7. Baza dannyh kursa dollar/rubl' Banka Rossii. https://web.archive.org/web/20120211090942/http://cbr.ru/currency_base/dynamics.aspx?VAL_NM_RQ=R01235&date_req1=01.06.1998&r1=1&date_req2=31.12.1998&C_month=12&C_year=1998&rt=2&mode=2&x=45&y=10 (data obrascheniya 01.01.2023)
8. Balikoev, V. Z. Obschaya ekonomicheskaya teoriya : uchebnik / V. Z. Balikoev. – 16-e izd., pererab. i dop. – Moskva: INFRA-M, 2020. – 528 s.
9. Brodel' F. Material'naya civilizaciya, ekonomika i kapitalizm, XV—XVIII vv. Per. s fr. T. 1. Struktury povsednevnosti: vozmozhnoe i nevozmozhnoe. M., 1986.
10. Vikulina, T. D. Ekonomicheskaya teoriya: uchebnoe posobie / T. D. Vikulina. – 2-e izd. – Moskva: RIOR: INFRA-M, 2020. – 209 s.
11. Gavrikova V. CB opisal scenariy global'nogo krizisa v 2023-m. Kakie rynki pod ugrozoy? https://quote.rbc.ru/news/article/613735ac9a7947010bee0e51 (data obrascheniya 01.01.2023)
12. Glava MVF predupredila o bol'shih ekonomicheskih potryaseniyah v mire. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5158400 (data obrascheniya 01.01.2023)
13. Global'nuyu ekonomiku skoro nakroet ideal'nyy shtorm, zayavil Belousov. https://ria.ru/20221119/ekonomika-1832721992.html (data obrascheniya 01.01.2023)
14. Gukas'yan, G. M. Ekonomicheskaya teoriya: klyuchevye voprosy: Uchebnoe posobie / G.M. Gukas'yan. – 4-e izd., dop. i pererab. – M.: NIC INFRA-M, 2019. – 224 s.
15. Dzhorzh Model'skiy. Dlitel'nye cikly v mirovoy politike. Sietl: Izdatel'stvo Vashingtonskogo universiteta, 1987.
16. Egorova A.A., Tebekin A.V., Tebekin P.A. Vybor podhoda k formirovaniyu strategii, obespechivayuschey vyhod iz global'nogo social'no-ekonomicheskogo krizisa 2020 goda. // Teoreticheskaya ekonomika. 2020. № 5 (65). S. 44-67.
17. Iohin, V. Ya. Ekonomicheskaya teoriya: uchebnik dlya vuzov / V.Ya. Iohin. – 2-e izd., pererab. i dop. – Moskva: Izdatel'stvo Yurayt, 2021. – 353 s.
18. Kaluzhskiy M.L. Elektronnaya kommerciya: marketingovye seti i infrastruktura rynka. – Moskva: Ekonomika, 2014. – 328 s.
19. Kapkaev Yu.Sh., Kadyrov P.R. Osobennosti ciklichnosti razvitiya ekonomiki. // Fundamental'nye issledovaniya. – 2017. – № 10-3. – S. 587-593.
20. Kim, I. A. Osnovy ekonomicheskoy teorii: uchebnik i praktikum dlya srednego professional'nogo obrazovaniya / I. A. Kim. – Moskva: Izdatel'stvo Yurayt, 2021. – 328 s.
21. Kozlov A. Glubokiy krizis, stagflyaciya ili tehnicheskiy spad: chto zhdet mirovuyu ekonomiku. Recessiya budet oficial'no zafiksirovana v seredine 2023 goda, ozhidayut eksperty. https://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/articles/2022/07/17/931740-glubokii-krizis-stagflyatsiya (data obrascheniya 01.01.2023)
22. Kolesnikov A. Krizis 2022-2023? Baffet, CB, Gref, Deripaska, Mobius - pochemu oni zhdut finansovyh problem? https://smart-lab.ru/blog/722589.php (data obrascheniya 01.01.2023)
23. Kondrat'ev N. D., Oparin D. I. Bol'shie cikly kon'yunktury: Doklady i ih obsuzhdenie v Institute ekonomiki. — 1-e izd. — M., 1928. — 287 s.
24. Konotopov M.V., Tebekin A.V. Martovskie tezisy 2010 goda (o mirovom ekonomicheskom krizise s poziciy ciklov innovacionnogo razvitiya K. Zhuglyara). // Innovacii i investicii. 2010. № 1. S. 2-6.
25. Mazina M. Glava JPMorgan predupredil ob ugroze vsemirnoy recessii cherez 6–9 mesyacev. https://quote.rbc.ru/news/article/634519459a794783ea8b3a6e (data obrascheniya 01.01.2023)
26. Mitropol'skaya-Rodionova N.V., Tebekin A.V., Horeva A.V. Buduschee obschestvennoy i chastnoy sobstvennosti v chasti intellektual'nogo produkta v svete proishodyaschih tehniko-tehnologicheskih i social'no-ekonomicheskih transformaciy. // Transportnoe delo Rossii. 2021. № 5. S. 20-28.
27. Mitropol'skaya-Rodionova N.V., Tebekin A.V., Horeva A.V. K voprosu o realizacii nacional'nyh antikrizisnyh programm. // Epomen. 2020. № 46. S. 76-97.
28. Mitropol'skaya-Rodionova N.V., Tebekin A.V., Horeva A.V. Metody prinyatiya upravlencheskih resheniy na osnove instrumentov teorii massovogo obsluzhivaniya. // Zhurnal issledovaniy po upravleniyu. 2019. T. 5. № 6. S. 34-54.
29. Orlova I.A. Teoreticheskie osnovy issledovaniya ekonomicheskoy ciklichnosti. // Voprosy ekonomiki i prava. 2015, № 84, s.46-49.
30. Pareto V. Kompendium po obschey sociologii. / Per. A. A. Zotova. — 2-e izd. — M.: Izd. dom GU VShE, 2008. — 511 s.
31. Predskazavshiy krizis 2008 goda Rubini prognoziruet situaciyu v ekonomike huzhe, chem v 1970-h. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5622178
32. Razrazitsya li global'nyy dolgovoy krizis v blizhayshie dva-tri goda? https://regnum.ru/news/economy/3760183.html (data obrascheniya 01.01.2023)
33. Sagalaev M. Analitik ocenil veroyatnost' global'nogo ekonomicheskogo krizisa v 2023 godu. https://iz.ru/1378925/2022-08-12/analitik-otcenil-veroiatnost-globalnogo-ekonomicheskogo-krizisa-v-2023-godu (data obrascheniya 01.01.2023)
34. Smirnov A.S. Cikly Zhyuglyara i smena prezidentov SShA vo vtoroy polovine XX-nachale XXI vv. // Ekonomicheskiy zhurnal. 2013, №2 (30).
35. Sokolova M. Prognoz na 2023 god: global'nyy krizis s nepredskazuemymi posledstviyami. https://newdaynews.ru/moscow/780958.html (data obrascheniya 01.01.2023)
36. Tebekin A.V. Analiz krizisov s poziciy ekonomicheskoy teorii. // Zhurnal ekonomicheskih issledovaniy. 2018. T. 4. № 12. S. 3-9.
37. Toffler, Elvin. Tret'ya volna / Elvin Toffler; [per. s angl. K. Yu. Burmistrova i dr.]. - Moskva: AST: AST Moskva, cop. 2009 (Arhangel'sk: IPP Pravda Severa). - 795 s.
38. Trushina N. Ekspert predskazal global'nyy ekonomicheskiy krizis: kogda dokatitsya do Rossii. https://www.mk.ru/economics/2022/08/20/ekspert-predskazal-globalnyy-ekonomicheskiy-krizis-kogda-dokatitsya-do-rossii.html (data obrascheniya 01.01.2023)
39. Forrester, Dzhey. Dinamika razvitiya goroda [Tekst] / Per. s angl. M. G. Orlovoy; Pod red. Yu. P. Ivanilova [i dr.]; Predisl. Yu. K. Kozlova. - Moskva: Progress, 1974. - 285 s.
40. Chun'kov Yu.I. Ekonomicheskaya teoriya: uchebnoe posobie. V 3 ch. Ch. 3. Globalizaciya i socializm / Yu. I. Chun'kov. - M.: Izdatel'stvo ITRK, 2013. - 688 s.
41. Shvab K. Chetvertaya promyshlennaya revolyuciya / K. Shvab — M.: «Eksmo», 2016 — 138 S.