Simferopol, Simferopol, Russian Federation
Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation
The article provides an overview of possible scenarios for the development of the Russian economy, based on the assumptions about the impact of the pandemic on the speed of demand recovery and the sustainability of this recovery, their impact on the effectiveness of the development of the Russian economy, as well as based on the experience of the world’s leading economies. Thus, an analysis of four scenarios for the development of the Russian economy developed by the state authorities of the Russian Federation on the medium-term horizon is presented: the baseline scenario, as well as three alternative ones that reflect the possible risks for the baseline scenario. The purpose of the study is to study the scenarios for the development of the Russian economy for the period 2022-2024 and to compare the potential for the effectiveness of their development with the genetic characteristics of the leading economies of the world, to identify strengths and weaknesses, advantages and their disadvantages, as well as possible strategies and principles potentially implemented in the Russian economy. The relevance of the work lies in the search for the necessary scenario for the development of the domestic economy at the present time. Strategic initiatives for the possible development of the Russian economy are also critically rethought in retrospectives of domestic and foreign researchers. Based on this goal, the following tasks were put forward: to describe the theoretical models of the various leading economies of the world; consider the advantages and disadvantages of different economies of the world; to study the available basic scenarios for the development of the Russian economy; to develop recommendations based on the rational experience of the leading countries of the world, potentially possible for application in the Russian economy. The article undertakes an analytical hypothesis of economic foresight of the effectiveness of the monetary policy of Russias.
the Russian economy, development potential, the world’s leading economies, monetary policy, scenario approach
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