A comprehensive assessment of transformation processes in the global economy in the conditions of civilizational turbulence

Egine Karagulyan; Elena Andreeva

doi:10.52957/2221-3260-2026-7-132-150

VAK Russia 5.2.1 JEL F01 VAK Russia 5.2.5 JEL F60 JEL O33 JEL P52 JEL C43

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A COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF TRANSFORMATION PROCESSES IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN THE CONDITIONS OF CIVILIZATIONAL TURBULENCE A comprehensive assessment of transformation processes in the global economy in the conditions of civilizational turbulence

АА Аа

Published in Theoretical economics · Issue 7, 2026 · Pages 132–150 · Rubric: MODERN PROBLEMS OF THE WORLD ECONOMY

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52957/2221-3260-2026-7-132-150

Received: 05.04.2026 Accepted: 24.07.2026 Published: 30.07.2026

Authors

Egine Karagulyan

ORCID

Elena Andreeva

ORCID

Egine Karagulyan

Academic degree: candidate of economic sciences

Science rang: docent

Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences Senior Researcher · Russian Federation · Ekaterinburg

University of Tyumen Assistant Professor · Russian Federation · Tyumen

ORCID

Elena Andreeva

Academic degree: doctor of economic sciences

Science rang: professor

Institute of Economics of the Urals Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences Director · Center for Regional Comparative Studies · Yekaterinburg

ORCID

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study is to develop a methodological approach to comprehensively assessing transformation processes in the global economy amid civilizational turbulence characterized by overlapping geopolitical, technological, sociodemographic, and value crises. Methods. The study utilizes theoretical analysis of civilizational turbulence concepts, systems and structural-functional approaches, and economic and statistical analysis. The author's methodological approach is based on a system of 41 indicators grouped into four functional blocks: geoeconomic architecture and polarization; rate of structural transformations; systemic vulnerability and resilience to shocks; and institutional and value-civilizational changes. The indicators are differentiated into stimulators and disincentives of turbulence. Results. Based on the theoretical analysis, key factors of systemic instability are identified. An algorithm for calculating the Transformational Resilience Index is proposed, including the steps of indicator normalization, weighting, country clustering, results verification, and scenario forecasting. Conclusions. The scientific novelty of this approach lies in its shift from analyzing static macro-indicators to assessing the adaptability of economic systems and their ability to transform in the face of a "clash of orders". The proposed tools can be used for strategic planning, country risk assessment, and economic policy adjustments in an era of global instability.

KEYWORDS

civilizational turbulence, global economic transformation, transformational resilience index, fragmentation, geopolitical polarization, institutional change, multipolarity, assessment methodology

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Karagulyan E. A., Andreeva E. L. A comprehensive assessment of transformation processes in the global economy in the conditions of civilizational turbulence // Theoretical economics. 2026. no. 7. pp. 132-150. DOI: https://doi.org/10.52957/2221-3260-2026-7-132-150. (Date of access 25.10.2026).

MLA

Egine Karagulyan, Andreeva E. L.. "A comprehensive assessment of transformation processes in the global economy in the conditions of civilizational turbulence." Theoretical economics.7 (2026): 132-150. DOI: https://doi.org/10.52957/2221-3260-2026-7-132-150.

APA

Karagulyan E. A., Andreeva E. L. (2026). A comprehensive assessment of transformation processes in the global economy in the conditions of civilizational turbulence. Theoretical economics(7), 132-150. https://doi.org/10.52957/2221-3260-2026-7-132-150

Chicago

Egine Karagulyan, Andreeva E. L.. "A comprehensive assessment of transformation processes in the global economy in the conditions of civilizational turbulence." Theoretical economics, no. 7 (2026): 132-150. https://doi.org/10.52957/2221-3260-2026-7-132-150.

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{{cite journal | author = Karagulyan E. A., Andreeva E. L. | title = A comprehensive assessment of transformation processes in the global economy in the conditions of civilizational turbulence | journal = Theoretical economics | year = 2026 | issue = 7 | pages = 132-150 | doi = 10.52957/2221-3260-2026-7-132-150 }}

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A COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF TRANSFORMATION PROCESSES IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN THE CONDITIONS OF CIVILIZATIONAL TURBULENCE A comprehensive assessment of transformation processes in the global economy in the conditions of civilizational turbulence

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