The use of the Business Confidence Index (IPI) to analyze the dynamics of the development of the Russian ferrous metallurgy in the global market

Maksim Kon&#039;kov; Vladimir Noskov

doi:10.52957/2221-3260-2026-2-155-166

JEL

F14 L61 L52

THE USE OF THE BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX (IPI) TO ANALYZE THE DYNAMICS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RUSSIAN FERROUS METALLURGY IN THE GLOBAL MARKET The use of the Business Confidence Index (IPI) to analyze the dynamics of the development of the Russian ferrous metallurgy in the global market

АА Аа

Published in Theoretical economics · Pages 155–166 · Rubric: MODERN PROBLEMS OF THE WORLD ECONOMY

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52957/2221-3260-2026-2-155-166

Received: 18.12.2025 Accepted: 19.02.2026 Published: 28.02.2026

Authors

Maksim Kon'kov

ORCID

Vladimir Noskov

ORCID

Maksim Kon'kov

Academic degree: graduate student of economic sciences

Samara State University of Economics Samara

ORCID

Vladimir Noskov

Academic degree: doctor of economic sciences

Science rang: professor

Samara State University of Economics Samara

ORCID

ABSTRACT

The article examines the current state and development prospects of the Russian metallurgical industry amid geoeconomic instability during 2022–2025. The authors analyze the impact of sanctions, rising transportation costs, and the restructuring of logistical routes on the sector’s export capabilities. The Business Confidence Index (BCI) serves as the primary methodological instrument, with its application substantiated by its timeliness, sensitivity to external economic shocks, and predictive capacity. The analysis of BCI dynamics in mining and manufacturing industries reveals a significant decline in business activity in early 2025 following the growth period of 2023–2024. Production statistics indicate a reduction in rolled metal and pig iron output, a decrease in capacity utilization to 61 percent, and deteriorating profit expectations in the mining sector. Concurrently, the study identifies a recovery in steel pipe and hollow section production, alongside stabilization in carbon steel output. The authors identify a complex of internal and external adverse factors: sanctions pressure, declining global metal prices, the elevated key rate of the Central Bank, and the contraction of the construction sector. The conclusion emphasizes the necessity of structural adaptation for metallurgical enterprises through equipment modernization and technological innovation to enhance competitiveness under transformed economic conditions.

KEYWORDS

Ferrous metallurgy, global economic uncertainty, digitalization of the economy, price volatility, external economic shocks, geopolitics, infrastructure, risk management

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Maksim Markin

markinmi@ystu.ru

Chief Editor

Valery Gordeev

vagordeev@rambler.ru

Deputy Editor-in-Chief

Marina Mayorova

mayorovama@ystu.ru

Deputy editor-in-chief

Galina Rodina

galinarodina@mail.ru

This work is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Creative Commons

GOST

Kon'kov M. N., Noskov V. A. The use of the Business Confidence Index (IPI) to analyze the dynamics of the development of the Russian ferrous metallurgy in the global market // . 2026. pp. 155-166. DOI: https://doi.org/10.52957/2221-3260-2026-2-155-166. (Date of access 20.08.2026).

MLA

Maksim Kon'kov, Noskov V. A.. "The use of the Business Confidence Index (IPI) to analyze the dynamics of the development of the Russian ferrous metallurgy in the global market." (2026): 155-166. DOI: https://doi.org/10.52957/2221-3260-2026-2-155-166.

APA

Kon'kov M. N., Noskov V. A. (2026). The use of the Business Confidence Index (IPI) to analyze the dynamics of the development of the Russian ferrous metallurgy in the global market. , 155-166. https://doi.org/10.52957/2221-3260-2026-2-155-166

Chicago

Maksim Kon'kov, Noskov V. A.. "The use of the Business Confidence Index (IPI) to analyze the dynamics of the development of the Russian ferrous metallurgy in the global market." , no. (2026): 155-166. https://doi.org/10.52957/2221-3260-2026-2-155-166.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Kon'kov M. N., Noskov V. A. | title = The use of the Business Confidence Index (IPI) to analyze the dynamics of the development of the Russian ferrous metallurgy in the global market | journal = | year = 2026 | pages = 155-166 | doi = 10.52957/2221-3260-2026-2-155-166 }}

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THE USE OF THE BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX (IPI) TO ANALYZE THE DYNAMICS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RUSSIAN FERROUS METALLURGY IN THE GLOBAL MARKET The use of the Business Confidence Index (IPI) to analyze the dynamics of the development of the Russian ferrous metallurgy in the global market

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